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Market Statistics Overview
We had 126 sales in October, that’s down from 143 we had in September. Generally we see sales between September and October stay a bit more even than this, but a 10% drop in sales month to month isn’t unfathomable, just a slightly steeper drop in sales than we’re used to between the two months.
Now looking at our new listings, where we saw 168 new homes for sale within October. This is about a 15% decline in new listings from the previous month, but this is basically right in line with what we usually see. The further we get into the colder months, the fewer people put their home up for sale.
With those sales and new listings that gave us an inventory in Airdrie of 211 properties for sale to start November with. That is the highest inventory we’ve seen all year, but it is still significantly lower than our 10 year average of 350 listing at this time of year.
So, we are still looking at under 2 months of supply, at 1.67 months of inventory right now. Which puts us still in a sellers market, although not as extreme as many months we’ve in the last 2 years where we had under 1 month of supply.
The average days on market does continue to trend up, now at 27 days being the average, which is still very quick, but not nearly as fast paced as the lowest we saw last year at an average of 13 days on market.
Pricing
Starting first with our detached homes. Which currently account for about 50% of our sales here in the city. Our benchmark price for detached homes is up again this month by 0.75% over last month. Now at a benchmark price of $610,400. This is one of the numbers that surprised me a bit. I was expecting to see the detached price go up again this month, but I wasn’t expecting it to go up by three quarters of a percent! I was expecting more like a 0.3-0.4% increase.
At the same time we see the price increasing more than expected, the average sale price to list price ratio is going down. This month, on average, detached homes were selling for 1.6% lower than their list price. This is the lowest we’ve seen the sale to list price ratio in about 2.5 years.
Moving onto those semi-detached homes, or duplexes. Here we saw a price increase as well, but more in line with my expectations. Benchmark price for semi-detached in our city increased by 0.37% up to $476,000. Here the sale to list price ratio is holding strong, at an average sale price of 0.3% ABOVE the list price.
Moving onto townhouses next, which make up about a quarter of our sales here in Airdrie, which makes it our second biggest housing style. Here we saw prices go up 0.6% compared to last month, now at a benchmark price of $354,400. We’re still seeing strong sale prices and quite a bit of competition amongst buyers here, with the average sale being 0.9% above the list price.
Which brings us now to our final housing style here in Airdrie, which is our apartment style condos. This style has been the top performer in our market all year, and this month is no exception. Benchmark price for apartments is up 2.6% in just the last month, at a benchmark price now of $265,000. So, condos are clearly the style thats out performing the rest right now, and it looks like that will continue to be the case for the rest of 2023.
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Now we’re gonna move onto the market stats in the different price ranges. Because when we narrow your specific situation down to your specific property, the market conditions can range a LOT, so it's important to know what the market’s like in your price range.
Starting first with our $0-$300,000 price point. In this range we had 21 sales in October, and we currently have an inventory of just 18 homes. So you can see why the condo prices are increasing as fast as they are. These stats put us below 1 month of supply in this range, and into an extreme sellers market. In these conditions prices will continue to move up fairly aggressively, until either demand fades, or we get more supply.
Moving onto the $300,000-$500,000 price range. Here we had 51 sales last month, and we currently have just 39 listings for sale. This again is less than 1 month of supply, and puts the $300-500,000 range in an extreme sellers market as well. Moving onto the $500,000-700,000 price range. Here we had 40 sales in October, and we currently have 94 active listings. Which means we’re sitting at about 2 and a half months of supply in this range, which puts it in more of a balanced market and not as much of a sellers market anymore. At 94 listings, we also know, that nearly half of Airdrie's current listings, end up within the $500,000-$700,000 range.
Moving onto the $700,000-$900,000 range. Here we saw 12 sales within October, and we currently have 47 active listings. Which means this range is sitting just under 4 months of supply. Which puts this price range still in a balanced market technically, but getting very close to a buyers market.
Lastly we’ll look at anything in Airdrie over $900,000. In this higher end range we saw 3 sales within October, but we currently have 22 active listings. This means we have over 7 MONTHS of supply over $900,000. So this range is definitely in a buyers market. So if your a buyer or seller in this price range, make sure to adjust your expectations accordingly.
Overview
So... Where are we gonna go from here. Well I think things will slow down here in the last 2 months of the year. We continue to see subtle hints of this in some starts each month, but at this point price increases seems to be moving up regardless. Now I don’t think we’re gonna see prices go down at all, but I’m expecting to see the increases slow down a bit the next couple months. This year more than others it seems that people are wanting to wait until the new year to commit to a purchase, esspecially Ontario buyers making the move to Alberta.
I think we’re gonna see a very early spring market in 2024, with things starting to pick up as early as mid to late January, into the spring market. As a buyer it means that you may have 2-3 months here where there may be less competition, and you may be able to secure a purchase with a bit less pressure to offer above list price, and actually be able to negotiate a bit with the seller. If you’re a buyer thats ready to go, I’d be wanting to secure something before the new year, so I can try to avoid the spring market rush, and be able to lock in your interest rate in case we see them go up anymore.
For you sellers on the other hand. If I don’t have to sell my home right now, I’m probably holding off at this point. I’d rather wait until early in 2024 and take part in that spring market to try and maximize my sale price. I’d be looking to probably list in February, as compared to march or April, because I think we’ll see that spring market shift a bit earlier than usual, esspecially if we get any hints of interest rates stabilizing in January or February.
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- Brad Walker
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