MARKET STATISTICS OVERVIEW
We had 210 listings sell within the month which is fairly on par with the last few months, but a little bit less that previous years for the month of May. This is actually the first time in 2024 that we’ve seen a year over year decline in sales numbers. Up to this point we’ve been beating 20-23 sales every month, and by quite a large margin, but this May our sales ended up 7% less than last years may sales.
We had 278 new listings come to the market, which is slightly higher than last year, as you can see on this chart here with 2024 in blue and 2023 as the green line, but still a lot lower than the new listings we saw in 2021 and 2022.
For current inventory to start June we had 208 active listings in Airdrie, which is actually a pretty good jump over last month where we had just 160 listings. Similar to listings, you can see here that our inventory is slightly higher than 2023, but still quite a lot lower than 2021 and 2022.
All those numbers gives us a current months of supply of pretty much exactly 1 month, at 0.99 months of supply, which still puts us very much in a sellers market, but not as much as we’ve seen the last couple months.
To me these numbers look like we could be looking at the market cooling down into the summer a little bit early than expected. Not that we’ll see prices coming down, I dont think we’re going to see that, but theres a good chance we may have seen most of our price increases for 2024 in the first 5 months of the year.
Our benchmark price overall is up 1.2% in the last month, and this will likely continue going up over the next couple months, but I think we won't see huge price increases throughout the rest of the year.
STYLES
DETACHED
Here we had 112 sales in May, and 157 new listings, which gave us an inventory of 143 single family homes to start June with. Which means that we have 1.28 months of supply for single family homes right now. So in terms of that stat, the detached market is the slowest market out of the 4 right now, but of course this really depends on the price ranges. For prices on detached homes, our benchmark price is up 1.2% in the last month, bringing us to a benchmark price of $651,000 for a detached home here in Airdrie.
SEMI-DETACHED
Moving onto the semi detached homes, or duplexes. Here we saw 16 sales in May and 17 new listings, which left us with just 10 homes for sale to start June with. That means we’re still sitting at just 0.6 month as of supply for the semi-detached market. Only about 2 and a half weeks of supply! Unlike detached homes, the months of supply actually dropped a bit this last month. As for pricing, semi-detached is also up 1.2% in the last month, now at a benchmark price of $501,600. This is the first time that our semi-detached homes have reached over the $500,000 mark for the benchmark price.
TOWNHOMES
Now onto townhomes, in May we had 66 sales and 80 new listings, but we ended the month with just 39 active listings, which means we have a months of supply of just 0.59 months for the townhouses. Getting close to having just a half a month of supply for the townhouses, which is pretty ridiculous. So of course its no surprise that we saw prices for townhouses go up 1.4% in the last month, up to a benchmark price of $381,400.
CONDOS
Lastly, lets take a look at our condo market here in Airdrie. We had lower condo sales in May, but thats mostly since we started the month with so few active listings. We saw 16 sales, and 24 new listings, which gave us 16 active listings to start June with. That gives us exactly 1 month of supply in the condo market right now. As for pricing, condos had the biggest increase in the last month, with a 1.6% increase in the benchmark price, which is now sitting at $289,000.
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PRICE RANGES
$0 - $300,000
Here we had 13 sales in May, all of which were condos, and we currently have 12 active listings. Sales in this range last month on average had a firm sale in just under 2 weeks, and sold for an average of 1% above their list price.
$300,000 - $500,000
We saw 69 sales in May, and we currently have just 49 active listings, so just 0.7 months of supply in this range right now. Now of those 69 sales we saw, only 10 of them sold for under list price, with the average sale being 2-3% above the list price in this price range.
$500,000 - $700,000
In this range we had 98 sales in May, and we currently have 83 active listings. So a lot of activity in this range, and this is the rage that a lot of out starter detached homes are in now. So, currently we have 0.84 months of supply here, so still under a month of supply which means it’s going to be a pretty tight market. Looking at our 98 sales, just 18 of them sold for under their list price, with he average being sold for about 1% above the list price. Our average days on market in this range was 17 days. Now keep in mind, that as we go up in price, the activity slows down a bit, for example, if instead of $500k-$700k we were to look at $650k-$700k, now you’re looking at an average sale price of exactly at the list price, and an average days on market of 23 days.
$700,000 - $900,000
Here we had 29 sales in May, and we currently have 44 active listings. This becomes the first price range where we have over 1 month of supply, with 1.51 months of supply. So you probably won’t be surprised to hear that the average sale in this range was right at the list price, and the average days on market is a bit higher at 34 days. Now this range is slower than the lower price ranges, but being under 2 months of supply it is still in a sellers market, and an average sale in 1 month is still pretty quick stuff, considering we’re talking about properties in the $700k-$800k range.
Over $900,000
We had 5 sales in May, and we currently have 30 active listings! So similar to what we’ve seen in previous months, this is where our market really slows down. 6 months of inventory in this range puts it right into a buyers market. As for those sales we had in this range, on average they sold for 3.7% below their list price, and had an average days on market of 49 days. So you can see that with so much listing competition in the higher price range, its definitely making it trickier to sell around the million mark here in Airdrie.
INTEREST RATES
You likely heard that the bank of Canada reduced their rate here in June. This affects all the variable mortgages right away. So, if you currently have a variable, or are getting one, this is good news for you, but if you have a fixed mortgage rate, nothing changes for you quite yet as our fixed rates follow the bond market.
If we weren’t looking at the interest rates, and just going strictly off the stats that we’re seeing in our housing market here in Airdrie right now, I’d say that it looks like we’re starting to slow down a bit into the late spring and early summer, as we have seen the past few years. I’d expect that we see our benchmark price continue to increase slightly for a couple more months, before levelling out for the rest of 2024.
But the interest rate news is kind of our wildcard in the market right now. You see a lot of people saying that once interest rates drop, our prices are going to skyrocket again. I personally don’t think that’s what we’re going to see. Although lower rates will help buyers with their approvals, it will also give sellers more freedom to sell, and buy another home with an interest rate that’s closer to their current rate. So it could mean more supply AND more demand in our market. Which if both of those move at the same time, may not have a huge effect on our market. But ultimately, a quarter percent isn’t going to crank up the heat a ton. I think we’d have to see more reductions through the rest of the year to really see it starting to affect our market much.
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- Brad Walker
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